Understanding Program Predictability MeasureA comprehensive guide to SAFe program predictability
What is PPM?
Program Predictability Measure (PPM) is a key metric in the Scaled Agile Framework (SAFe) that measures how reliably a program (multiple Agile teams) delivers planned value. It's calculated as the ratio of delivered story points to committed story points across all teams in a Program Increment (PI).
Why It Matters
PPM matters because: 1) It helps leadership understand team delivery reliability, 2) Enables better PI planning and forecasting, 3) Identifies teams or patterns that need improvement, 4) Provides transparency to stakeholders about delivery predictability, 5) Drives continuous improvement across the program.
Program PPM
91.9%
Highly Predictable
Avg On-Time Rate
83.6%
Features delivered on time
Total Points
248/270
Completed / Committed
PPM Trend
-0.5%
per PI on average
Avg PPM
91.9%
PPM Range
94.1%
Best PI
94%
PI 1
Needs Attention
0%
-
PPM Trend Over Time
Team Performance Comparison
Program Health Gauge
92%
Highly Predictable
On-Time Delivery by Team
Program Increment Data
Recommendations
Program Status
Great job! Your program is highly predictable. Continue current practices and focus on continuous improvement.
Next PI Planning
Your trend is declining. Use your last PI's actual velocity (not committed) for planning. Add 10-15% buffer.
Team Focus
Focus on Team Beta - they have the lowest PPM (89%). Provide coaching and support.
Program Predictability Glossary
Program Predictability Measure (PPM)
A SAFe metric showing the ratio of delivered story points to committed story points across all teams in a Program Increment. Target is 90%+.
Program Increment (PI)
A timeboxed iteration (typically 8-12 weeks) in SAFe where Agile teams work to deliver increments of value. PIs consist of multiple sprints.
Story Points
A unit of measure for expressing the effort required to implement a product backlog item. Points are relative and based on complexity, uncertainty, and volume.
Velocity
The amount of work (in story points) a team completes during a sprint or PI. Used for capacity planning and forecasting.
On-Time Delivery Rate
The percentage of committed features or stories delivered by their promised date. Key indicator of planning accuracy.
PI Planning
A major SAFe event where all teams in a program plan together for the upcoming Program Increment. Teams commit to work and identify dependencies.
Features
A capability that delivers value to end users. Features are broken down into user stories and represent the top-level backlog items in SAFe.
Enabler
Work that supports the implementation of features, such as infrastructure, architecture, or exploration of new technologies.
Scrum of Scrums
A meeting where representatives from each team coordinate dependencies and impediments. Typically held daily during a PI.
ART (Agile Release Train)
A virtual organizational structure that brings together multiple Agile teams (typically 5-12) to deliver solutions incrementally.